A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
